抄録
Century long terrestrial off-line simulation is exploited to estimate hydrologic drought. A land-surface model HiGW-MAT is forced by 5 GCM projections and the impact of anthropogenic water management is analyzed in order to estimate impact of climate change and human activity’S alleviation capacity of the impact. We identified hot-spots where drought tends to increase, and its uncertainty is also estimated. The result shows water management mitigates natural variability of drought and alleviates the increasing rate of the drought days. The timing of perception change for drought (TPCD), an indicator to estimate of the remaining time before significant increase of drought is devised to discuss strategic adaptation policy. The analysis indicates that 13 out of 26 regions show significant signal until 2050 even considering the spread of ensemble GCM projections and will experience unprecedented drought. Therefore, it can be claimed that remaining time is possibly not enough for appropriate preparation, which urges us act.
