土木学会論文集B1(水工学)
Online ISSN : 2185-467X
ISSN-L : 2185-467X
水工学論文集第60巻
気候差分ダウンスケーリング法による関東・中部山岳域の確率論的気候変化予測
若月 泰孝原 政之藤田 実季子馬燮銚井上 忠雄木村 富士男小池 俊雄
著者情報
ジャーナル フリー

2016 年 72 巻 4 号 p. I_55-I_60

詳細
抄録

 The incremental dynamical downscaling and analysis system (InDDAS) which has been developed from the pseudo-global-warming method by appending partial functions was applied for a probabilistic regional scale climate change projection with the target regions of Kanto and Japan Alps. In InDDAS, the most reliable future state was projected by a regional climate model (RCM) simulation with an ensemble mean among the climatological increments of multiple general circulation model (GCM) simulations. In addition, the uncertainty of the future projections is estimated by RCM simulations with the multi-modal statistical increments calculated by the singular vector decomposition of the multiple GCMs. An increase of rainfall with the change ratio of 7-16 % was projected in Kanto region, where the most reliable value was 10 %. The change ratios of the vicinity quantiles of extreme rainfall was projected to be larger than that of rainfall and was almost the same as the value explained by the Clausius—Clapeyron effect.

著者関連情報
© 2016 公益社団法人 土木学会
前の記事 次の記事
feedback
Top