FUTURE RIVER DISCHARGE PROJECTIONS AT THE INDOCHINESE PENINSULA USING LARGE ENSEMBLE CLIMATE DATASET

抄録

 Projections of river discharge at the Indochinese Peninsula under climate change were analyzed by comparing the empirical distributions of annual maximum daily river discharge for the present and future climate experiments. The river discharge was simulated by a kinematic-wave flow routing model, 1K-FRM using the runoff generation data stored in the database for Policy Decision Making for Future climate change, d4PDF. To fully utilize the multi-initial and boundary condition datasets, the differences between each couple of the empirical distributions of the future annual maximum river discharge produced by different groups of SST patterns were investigated firstly using the non-parametric two-sample KS-test and AD-tests. The analysis results indicated that the differences in the distributions were significant for much of the study area except parts of the Mekong Delta and southern Indochina Region. Thus, the total number of samples was limited within the same SST pattern, which is equivalent to 900-year period data. Then, the changes of river discharge in the future period for each SST pattern and its statistical significance were assessed using the Mann-Whitney U-test. The outcome demonstrated that despite the various degrees of changes according to locations, the detected changes at the Mekong Delta, southern Indochinese Peninsula and at the mouth of the Red River were statistically meaningful with the 95% confidence level.