Abstract
Although motorization can contribute to mobility improvement in urban growth, the excessive level of it may cause some problems to the economy and the environment. One of the reasons why the levels of motorization vary by city is a difference in the development levels of public transport infrastructure, particularly urban railway, as an alternative mode to cars. This study is aimed at quantitatively capturing the impact of early-stage railway development on calming motorization growth. First, the impacts of railway and road development on urban density and car ownership are modeled, taking account of development timing, using the panel data of Japan's large cities over their motorization period. Then, the model is applied to mega-cities in Asian developing countries to estimate the long-term impacts of early-stage railway development, late-stage railway development and no railway development. The results showed how effective early-stage railway development is in Asian mega-cities.
