OPTIMAL OPERATION OF TORNADO WARNINGS BASED ON COST-LOSS MODEL

Abstract

Tornado detection and warning system is under development with high resolution radars, though, evaluation methods for the system have not been completed yet. Because tornadoes are extremely rare events especially in Japan, false warnings must happen in relatively high rate and cause serious damages to its reliability and business loss. This paper proposes economic evaluation of tornado warnings by cost-loss model, considering evacuation psychology, the relationship between probability of detection (POD) and false alarm rate (FAR). As a result, it is suggested that comparatively high POD is recommended for residents. On the other hand, high thresholds to decrease FAR are effective particularly for business operators like railways even if they miss some small tornadoes.