Abstract
In Japanese urban railway, heavy congestion frequently occurs at the rush hour in the morning. In order to alleviate this problem, we propose lottery incentive scheme to promote off-peak commuting in urban railway of Tokyo. The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of lottery incentive scheme to alleviate railway congestion in the peak period and to find effective price and probability setting for off-peak commuting. As a result of the analysis, it is revealed that in case high winning prize of 28.9 thousand yen (low winning probability of 0.33%), the number of participant for off-peak commuting is increased comparing to normal policy. Congestion rate is also calculated by using the result of the model developed. The normal policy reduces by 1.5% of congestion rate, however, in case winning prize is set as 200 thousand yen (winning probability of 0.05%), congestion rate is reduced up to 196.9% that is as 0.6% low as normal policy.
