49　全球アンサンブル予報システムにおける日射の予報大外しと大気鉛直層の予報誤差の関係性の分析

抄録

In Japan, where photovoltaic power generation (PV) is widely adopted, the development of solar forecasting technology is important for the stable operation of the power grid. In this study, we aimed to analyze the forecast errors of solar radiation and atmospheric vertical layers in a global ensemble forecast system in order to reduce the occurrence of large deviations in PV power generation forecasts. Based on radiosonde observations, we performed a statistical evaluation of the system's representation of the atmospheric vertical layers when large deviations in forecasts occurred.