抄録
The purpose of this paper is to design a low-carbon energy system for Japan considering growth in energy demand, changes in energy resource prices and technological learning of energy conversion technologies. An energy-economic model is used to simulate total primary energy supply until 2050. The model makes use of market equilibrium in energy prices. For the CO_2 constraint scenario, coal becomes the main energy resource due to its low resource price. CO_2 emission reduction is only achieved in the case of decrease in energy demand. ln other cases, increase in CO_2 emission varies n¬om 523 t0 1275 Mt-CO_2 from the 2009 level. On the other hand, in the case of CO_2 emission constraint scenario results show transition in primary energy sources towards natural gas or wind. Introduction of wind power in "with learning-by-doing" case is encouraged compared to the reference case. This study implies that technological learning is effective in spurring penetration of renewable energy technologies.
