Abstract
Following establishment of specific numerical goals in the Science and Technology Basic Plan, measures have been taken for early increase in governmental R&D expenditure. The stringent financial situation today, however, has given rise to concern over the fruitfulness of the extended investment. Forecasting economic effects of governmental R&D of high uncertainty is a frontier of economy of technology. The present paper reviews prior investigations into this subject and points out that those works have little political implications. The author presents an original macroeconomic model to overcome this problem. Simulations using the model shows that the numerical goal of the Science and Technology Basic Plan, if achieved, will yield by 2010 a value added that largely surpasses investment.
