Abstract
The purpose of this study is to propose a fluctuation risk forecasting scheme about patent technical scope by quantitative element. In this study we proposed "redoc" as the parameter in decision making tendency. We analyzed patent specification by five indexes, the number of claims, the number of noun phrase, increasing rate of noun phrase, the rate of claim, the rate of group. It was found from the result that these five parameters are closely connected with XCLD (estimated changing amount of noun phrase) as objective variable. Furthermore in this paper we raised simulation method using the purposed Bayesian Network, It was found that the Monte Carlo method is more useful for forecasting XCLD.
