新型コロナウイルス感染症対策における数理モデルを活用した科学的助言

抄録

The use of mathematical models for policy making in infectious disease control has come true for the first time in Japan with the recent pandemic of novel coronavirus. This paper examines the Japanese government's response to novel coronavirus infection and discusses the possibilities and challenges of using mathematical models in scientific advice. Focusing on the extensive discussion in spring 2020 on the declaration of a state of emergency and its lifting, the paper describes in detail the relevant policy making processes based on close cooperation among various experts through frank discussions in an informal study group of experts, as well as close coordination between the government and experts. Such active efforts by experts have enabled co-creative policy making processes taking advantage of mathematical models that can help predict the future condition of infection and analyze infection mechanisms. On the other hand, some challenges need to be overcome in order for such co-creation processes, where people from different organizations and fields work together to deepen mutual understanding, to function properly: Constructing an effective system and securing human resources to mediate between different organizations and fields, enhancing mathematical models for effective policy implementation, and promoting understanding of the evidence of mathematical models by society and the public. These issues can have implications for the future of scientific advice.