A Personal to Social Demand Matrix Method for the Analysis and Forecasting of Market Penetration of Technologies in Japan : A Technological Forecasting Method based on the Extended Maslow's Theory

Abstract

In this paper, the authors describe a method for the analysis of market penetration process of new technologies based on the extended Maslow's theory. Since exsisting technological forecasting methods do not involve demand side information enoughly, they often fail to provide good predictions. The authors propose a new method to overcome the above difficulty. Firstly, they extend the Maslow's five steps of wants to demand matrix involving five subjects, i.e. personality, company, society, nation and the earth. Secondly, the market penetration process of technologies are plotted on the matrix. It is found that the process are classified into six patterns. Finally, the preferable strategies on some new technologies are discussed based on the demand matrix.