低学年児童の非形式的な統計的推測の促進におけるモデルの役割：データモデリングの過程に着目して

抄録

The need for dealing with uncertainty in today’s complex and changing society has led to renewed research attention toward informal statistical inferences (ISIs) from child early years. However, the actual status of ISIs of Japanese lower grade children and the possibilities for its promotion remain to be clarified. This study clarifies the role of models in ISIs of such children, focusing on data modeling processes. To do so, Japanese second grade (7–8 years old) lessons involving the data modeling process were analyzed. The results reveal that the models created through the data modeling processes, with the support of the teacher, can serve three roles in promoting ISI in early elementary school children who are beginners in statistics and ISI: (i) a descriptive means to represent the structure of data and stochastic variability, (ii) a referent to draw analogies with the structure, and (iii) an explanatory means to explain the structure in a unified and comprehensive manner. Finally, based on the results, the direction of teacher support in teaching to promote ISI of lower grade children was suggested.