A rapid risk assessment of African swine fever introduction and spread in Japan based on expert opinions

Abstract

A rapid risk assessment was conducted using a questionnaire composed of 10 questions asking experts in African swine fever (ASF) to identify and rank the potential risk factors associated with the introduction and spread of ASF in Japan. The experts participating in this risk assessment considered illegal food import, followed by transport routes and foreign workers, to be the most relevant pathway of ASF introduction into Japan. Kanto and Kyushu were identified as the most likely regions for ASF introduction. All experts agreed that China is the most likely source of ASF introduction into Japan. Most Japanese experts were of the view that the risk of ASF spread if introduced into Japan would be low, while foreign experts considered the risk to be moderate or high. Most experts answered that wild boars would play an important role in the persistence of ASF if the disease were to spread in Japan.