Association between highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks and weather conditions in Japan

抄録

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) poses a significant threat to animal and public health, with outbreaks occurring globally. HPAI poses significant challenges due to its high mortality rate and public health concerns, with outbreaks spreading globally since the emergence of the H5N1 virus in 2003. In Japan, HPAI outbreaks have been particularly prevalent during autumn and winter seasons, with the 2022–2023 winter experiencing the most severe outbreak to date. However, limited research has directly examined the association between HPAI outbreaks and weather conditions in Japan. Here we show that specific weather conditions are associated with an increased risk of HPAI outbreaks on poultry farms in Japan. By analyzing databases of HPAI cases and meteorological data from 2020–2023, we found that higher average air temperatures two to three weeks prior, lower average wind speeds four weeks prior, and longer sunlight hours two and four weeks prior to outbreaks were significantly associated with increased risk of HPAI outbreaks in Japan. These results suggest that weather may influence environmental survival and transmission of the virus, as well as patterns of wild bird movement that could seed new outbreaks. These findings enhance our understanding of the factors influencing HPAI transmission dynamics and highlight the importance of integrating weather forecasts into disease surveillance and prevention strategies.