国連の予防展開の可能性と限界

国連予防展開軍（UNPREDEP）の事例

抄録

Following the end of the Cold War, various tentatives to achieve peace have been made, most notably through the United Nations peacekeeping operations. The first attempt to be carried out was, one called “preventive deployment” and consisted in the deployment of United Nations peacekeeping forces before a conflict takes place. Under the name United Nations Preventive Deployment Force (UNPREDEP), such a force was successfully dispatched to the Former Yugoslavia Republic of Macedonia (Macedonia) and was able to achieve its purpose of preventing the conflict in Yugoslavia from spreading to Macedonia.
If we consider the terrible events that took place during the Yugoslavia civil war and their consequences as seen in Bosnia and Herzegovina, numbers alone cannot accurately measure the positive impact this mission had in preventing the conflict from spilling into Macedonia. However, it is doubtful whether one should expect that such a singular success in conflict prevention could easily be reproduced. In this article I propose to examine the case of the UNPREDEP mission in Macedonia and to clarify why it succeeded. In Section 1 I will present an outline of UNPREDEP. In Section 2 I will focus on the reasons that can explain why UNPREDEP succeeded.
Concretely speaking, the mission took place under the following conditions: (1) international trend towards conflict prevention, (2) support for preventive deployment in the country concerned (Macedonia government and domestic players), (3) existence of a reliable force with deterrent capacity (U. S. A participation), (4) existence of a reward (participation to the EU and cancellation of sanctions from New Yugoslavia, etc.), (5) a domestic shared understanding of the potential aggressor country, (6) existence of other conflict prevention means (activity of Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), International Conference on the Former Yugoslavia (ICFY), Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), NGOs etc.), (7) clarification/limitation of purpose/mandate, (8) establishment of a division of labor system, (9) good timing. All these can be considered factors that contributed to the mission's success.
This leads us to the following conclusions: UNPREDEP did succeed in the carrying out of its deployment and in the prevention of conflict in Macedonia at that time, because various activities were performed very well, and, at the same time, supported by a set of favorable conditions and environment. So, we can deduce that changes in some of those factors could have led to quite a different, and less favorable, situation. The success of UNPREDEP should not be seen as a solid model. Rather, it serves to show the possibilities, but also the limits of achieving conflict prevention through such preventive deployments.