シナリオ・プランニング

抄録

Scenario planning is the useful strategic planning tool in the uncertain age. Developed by Royal Dutch Shell in 1970s, it deals with multiple plausible futures, fostering objective thinking among strategy planners. It also triggers constructive dialogue among multiple stakeholders by having them suspend their beliefs. By focusing on the future uncertainties and multiple aspects to form the future states, scenarios delineate the futures vividly in the form of narratives. Due to those details, people involved in scenario planning can discuss right strategic direction easily. It is a powerful planning tool, especially for public theme such as environmental issues since it fosters immediate actions to create a better future by identifying critical issues to overcome and pitfalls to avoid well in advance.