An Econometric Analysis of CO₂, Fuel, and Electricity Prices

抄録

Using an example from Europe, this paper considers energy commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, and wholesale electricity, which are deemed to affect the price of CO₂ and its fluctuation. I analyzed their mutual relationships and the characteristics of the changes in their market prices. The market price of CO₂ should be a guide for firms deciding on technologies to be adopted for reducing CO₂ emissions as well as their level of investment. Therefore, stability in the price is desirable. However, the analysis of this paper shows that these energy commodities are mutually related, and that their market prices are correlated and fluctuate greatly. Japan started to test-drive an integrated domestic market for emissions trading in October 2008. While it is anticipated to function as Japan's countermeasure to global warming, it brings considerable uncertainties to firms striving to reduce CO₂ emissions.