2005 年 56 巻 1 号 p. 135-160,351
This paper uses individual-level data to examine the cause of the sudden decline in turnout in House of Representatives elections in the 1990s.
The turnout rate remained flat from 1972 to 1990, but between 1990 and 1996 fell rapidly. In fact, individual-level data show that the electorate's political awareness changed markedly.
The analysis utilized in this inquiry first offers a comprehensive explanation for the sudden change in turnout. It then establishes determinants of both voting and abstention through probit analysis, and finally illustrates the cause of the fall in turnout through simulations.
The results show that the decline in turnout from 1990 to 1996 was due not to a decrease in mobilization, but rather to a decline in partisanship and low political interest of the electorate. In addition, alteration of the electoral rules had little significant effects.