2003年衆議院選挙・2004年参議院選挙の分析

期待の政治のひとつの帰結と有権者

抄録

In the years following the huge popularity of the early Koizumi Cabinet, national elections have been held in 2003 (House of Representatives) and in 2004 (House of Councilors). Using survey data from the 2001 House of Councilors Election—which was held in the height of Koizumi's popularity—as a reference point, this paper investigates the role of prospective and retrospective perceptions toward the Koizumi cabinet on voting behavior by analyzing data from the Japan Election Study 3, a nation-wide panel survey conducted from 2001 to 2005. The findings show that the incumbent LDP party lost shares due to a decline in prospective voting, which was insufficiently supplemented by positive retrospective voting. Further analyses reveal that economic perception was the main culprit for this change. Mass media was indirectly influential on this process through its initial perception of hope for reform and warm feelings toward Koizumi.