民主制と独裁制の生存条件

離散時間型生存分析による体制別危険因子の再検証

抄録

When and why does breakdown of political systems occur? Recent empirical works on regime changes have failed to address this question properly because their frameworks conventionally treat onset and outcome of political transitions as the same problem.
Conceptualizing the dependent variable more precisely and using an original data set that covers all system transformations in the 20th century, this paper reexamines the various hypotheses concerning sustainability of political systems. The factors analyzed here include: development level, resource dependence, economic inequality, social fractionalization, position in the world system, inflation, and economic recession.
The results indicate that although some factors have a common destabilizing effect, other factors act in the opposite direction between the two types of regime at risk. The regression models also reveal that dictatorships are more vulnerable to situational changes whereas democracies are immune to these threats: their survival depends more on the structural differences instead.