気候変動下での地球規模の水資源評価と渇水対策戦略評価のためのモデル開発

抄録

Because of many reasons such as increasing population, industrial development, and expanding irrigation, which are expected to continue in future, shortage of water resources has become more severe in many parts of the world. In order to assess the balance between water demand and supply in future under climate change, surface runoff and water demand in each river basin are estimated from 2050 through 2059. It is found that the estimated spatial patterns of runoff change in 2050s differ considerably by GCM used, especially in Central Africa and the north part of South America. In developed countries, industrial water demand will increase, while agricultural water demand will slightly decrease. In developing countries, water demand will increase in all sectors, especially the share of industrial water demand will increase significantly.