A BAU Scenario of Consumption and Production in 2030′s Southeast Asia

抄録

The objective of this research is to develop visions of SCP (Sustainable Consumption and Production) in Southeast Asia region. As the first step, this paper focuses on describing a BAU (Business-as-usual) scenario, which shows what will happen in 2030 if the present trend continues. In this paper, we evaluated the consumption of several kinds of consumer durables using two models, i.e., Bass model and exponential approximation model. The results revealed that the demand of consumer durables in Thailand and Vietnam increases up to 10 times towards 2030, compared to 2015.