抄録
This paper presents a quantitative analysis of resilience in energy system by employing an energy security evaluation model and electricity and petroleum supply models.The energy security model deals with uncertainties such as fuel price volatility and fuel import disruption as well as the blackout of nuclear power plants,which analyzes the economic validity of petroleum and LNG stockpiles and nuclear power with a stochastic dynamic programming technique.The electricity and petroleum supply models do a quantitative analysis of optimal electricity and petroleum supply strategy against capital-epicentered disaster and anticipated damage.The results suggest that deployable diversification of LNGcombined cycle,reinforcement of inter-regional power line and optimal operation of petroleum stockpile are effective measures to compensate the supply disruption.Computational simulation analysis plays an important role for designing optimal resilience policy against emerging risks in international security,natural disaster and environmental problem.
