Analysis of trends in the distribution of ling-term care beds and psychiatric beds in secondary and first medical areas

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the distribution of long-term care beds and psychiatric beds in view of future changes in the medical system of Japan following the introduction of the family doctor system. To this end, multiple regression analysis was performed on primary and secondary medical care areas throughout Japan, using AIC as the selection criterion. The numbers of general, long-term, and psychiatric beds per 10,000 persons were used as objective variables, and exploratory variables were selected from 27 indicators representing regional characteristics. The results show that the numbers of the long-term care beds and those of the psychiatric beds tend to be larger in regions with high elderly population ratios and small population and working-age populations. It should be noted that, irrespective of the result, the deployment of new community health facilities following the abolition of long-term care beds should be carried out carefully by establishing a long-term plan in consideration of the compact city policy.