Future scenario analysis on building stock demand of each prefecture

Abstract

In recent years, from the perspective of the finite resources of nature, transition to stock-based society which reduces the amount of material input and waste is expected. Material cycle in the construction sector is large, so it is essential to reduce the material flow in this sector to reduce environmental impacts. In order to understand the trends in the material flow of the construction sector, it is necessary to understand the future demand for stocks based on social factors. In this study, we focus on building structures and organize the factors affecting the demand for existing building. Also, we estimate future demand for building stock in each of the multiple scenarios that reflect the different social perspectives. As a result, demand for stock building per capita is different from nearly 10 tons in each scenario.