2011 年熊野川大洪水の再現計算からみた実時間河川水位予測の精度向上への課題

抄録

To improve real-time river stage prediction techniques especially for severe floods beyond our experience it is imperative to extend a river discharge prediction method as well as a technique to develop a rating curve applicable for floods exceeding existing observed data. Through a hydrologic prediction of the 2011 Kumano River flood causes of flood prediction uncertainties are analyzed and research issues to improve real-time river stage forecasting are discussed.