気候変動予測情報を用いた極値水文量の統計的推定

抄録

Traditional hydrological frequency analysis used for the river planning assumes that extreme rainfall values follow stationary process. However, considering the effect of climate change on the hydrological process, non-stationarity of extreme rainfall values must be incorporated to construct the flood control management corresponding to global warming. Also, observed extreme rainfall data are so limited ones that design rainfalls have uncertainty to a large extent. To quantify the uncertainty caused by the shortage of extreme value data, confidence interval and prediction interval based on probability limit method test was proposed in our previous research. In this paper, uncertainty evaluation method for design level rainfall in future climate by using Bayesian updated confidence interval and prediction interval is proposed to manage non-stationarity of extreme rainfall.