Development of a Predictive Program for Microbial Growth under Various Temperature Conditions

Abstract

A predictive program for microbial growth under various temperature conditions was developed with a mathematical model. The model was a new logistic model recently developed by us. The program predicts Escherichia coli growth in broth, Staphylococcus aureus growth and its enterotoxin production in milk, and Vibrio parahaemolyticus growth in broth at various temperature patterns. The program, which was built with Microsoft Excel (Visual Basic Application), is user-friendly; users can easily input the temperature history of a test food and obtain the prediction instantly on the computer screen. The predicted growth and toxin production can be important indices to determine whether a food is microbiologically safe or not. This program should be a useful tool to confirm the microbial safety of commercial foods.