ベイズは苦いレモンの匂いがするか

抄録

In this paper, I comment on the current rise in the application of Bayesian statistics within the field of psychology, as the user views it. The merit of Bayesian statistics has recently been emphasized as a last resort to overcome the weakness of the null hypothesis significance test (NHST), which is a main issue in questionable research practices (QRPs). However, in the end, most psychologists are only users of statistics, and Bayesian statistics is only one of many tools available to them. If this is true, the issues caused by misunderstanding the p-value may also appear in Bayesian statistics as a form of posterior hacking. The “open” principles of psychology provide new hope. However, strange feelings arise in my insides when I consider the open-data policy. For example, unfairness or “free rider” problems caused by the cost asymmetry between data makers and users may soon erupt. However, it may be important for psychologists to dive into the Bayesian world rather than avoiding entering it.