Positive Phase of Pacific Meridional Mode Enhanced Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in Summer 2018

抄録

The western North Pacific (WNP) exhibited markedly enhanced tropical cyclone (TC, typhoon) activity during the boreal summer (June–August) of 2018; 18 named typhoons were generated and 13 of these approached near Japan, causing serious damage and disruption in the country. During the summer of 2018, warm sea surface temperature persisted over the tropical Northeastern Pacific, which are typical oceanic conditions of a positive phase of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), while no El Niño condition was observed. The Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal forecast system successfully predicted the enhanced TC activity in the WNP as well as associated seasonal characteristics such as a deep monsoon trough and active convection. Results of sensitivity experiments clearly indicate that the positive phase of the PMM played a major role in establishing the active TC conditions in the WNP during the summer of 2018 and reveal predictable seasonal processes of TC activity (genesis and tracks) during the summer of 2018, when there was no El Niño.