2024 年 54 巻 1 号 p. 1-19
This study attempted to improve the self-sufficiency ratios of food and feed crop under the national export expansion strategy for natural resource products. To achieve the government’s food and feed crop self-sufficiency ratio targets for the fiscal year 2030, we used the nine interregional CGE （9SCGE） model to demonstrate strategies for agricultural policy implementation, factoring in the regional variations of Japan’s grain-producing areas. This presentation was defined through four policy simulations based on the projected economic environment of the target year 2030. From these results we can make the following conclusions. First, to improve grain productivity the regions suitable for producing highly import-dependent grains such as wheat, soybeans and corn should be selected, while taking measures to improve the productivity of livestock and fisheries by combining subsidy amounts among these two industrial sectors. However, according to present circumstances, these efforts appear insufficient for reaching the government’s targets. Second, an increase in food self-sufficiency ratios will improve the ratios of these grains. In this regard, the country-wide shrinkage of agricultural farmland can be utilized for livestock feed to bring a shift in the import-dependency of corn production. However, in some respects, trade-offs between increasing grain self-sufficiency ratio and expanding food exports need to be accepted from the perspective of Japan’s food security prioritizations. Third, if we promote a strategy to expand food exports without strengthening the competitiveness of feed-crop related industries, import-dependency of feed crops will still increase to an extent that further decreases the current feed self-sufficiency ratio, and thus the government targets remain unachieved. To work toward a targeted ratio for feed self-sufficiency, subsidizing the feed-crop related industries is imperative. Fourth, as Japan’s overall food self-sufficiency ratio increases, the urban–rural gap in food self-sufficiency is likely to widen.
JEL Classification:R51, Q17, Q18, R13
