An Inter Regional Input Output Analysis for Regional Development in Indonesia

抄録

(1) The trade flow coefficients make clear the differences of the domestic imports structure between Jawa and outside Jawa; Jawa has relatively high imports ratios in the agriculture, forestry, fishery and mining sectors, while the manufacturing and service sectors have low dependence on imports from other domestic regions.
(2) The imports coefficients outside Jawa are rather high even in the light manufacturing sectors such as the food processing sector, the textile sector and so on, and thus the manufacturing sectors have not fully developed supplying capacities there.
(3) The backward linkage effects are relatively high outside Jawa. On the contrary, they are lower in Jawa, because there is high dependence on foreign imports in Jawa, and there exists a biased domestic trade flow from Jawa to outside Jawa especially in the manufacturing sectors.
(4) In respect to the forward linkage effect, the manufacturing sectors of Jawa have higher effects, and in Sumatra and Kalimantan, they are relatively high in some resource located industries such as chemical products and wood products, in which these regions have specialized.
(5) The effects of the domestic import substitution are not always positive, but you see more than ten sectors with fairly high effects even in the manufacturing sectors; the highest effect, for example, is expected in the metal products sector of Sulawesi.
(6) Foreign import substitution effects in general are larger than domestic effects, and they differ very much among regions and sectors.
Finally the inter regional IO analysis depends on the estimated inter regional IO table. For a more reliable inter regional IO model, it would be very important to improve the estimation method and the data with trade flow.