Proceedings of the ISCIE International Symposium on Stochastic Systems Theory and its Applications
Online ISSN : 2188-4749
Print ISSN : 2188-4730
第41回ISCIE「確率システム理論と応用」国際シンポジウム(2009年11月, 神戸)
Money Demand Function through Cointegration Property of M2+CD Decomposed into M1 and Quasi Currency+CD
Yoji MoritaYoshitaka SawadaShigeyoshi Miyagawa
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2010 年 2010 巻 p. 246-251

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We analyze a money demand function in long equilibrium relation that is defined by a cointegration property among (money, gdp, interest rate). A wide sense of money ”M2CD” consists of narrow money ”M1” and wide one ”quasi currencyCD”(denoted by q-money). Regarding money as an asset, a rigorous correspondence of money to interest rate requires that M1 and q-money should be coupled with short-term interest rate and spread interest rate (long-term interest rate minus short-term one) respectively. Hence, The cointegration between M2CD and gdp should be described by two kinds of interest rates stated above.Due to a deflationary economy in Japan, cointegration property is said to break down, because for future anxiety people save money and the balance between gdp and total amount of money is disturbed. Such saved money is called ”precautionary demand”. Assuming that precautionary demand is proportional to the magnitude of recession, we define adjusted moneys M1adjM1k1 * |recession| and q-moneyadjq-moneyk2 * |recession| respectively and can show that the cointegration property holds among (M2CD, gdp, interest rates) by using M1adj and q-moneyadj with parameters k1 and k2 estimated.
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© 2010 ISCIE Symposium on Stochastic Systems Theory and Its Applications
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