動学的応用一般均衡モデルによる高速増殖炉サイクルの導入影響評価手法の開発

抄録

  The Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP) is a widely used computable general equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Purdue University. Although the GTAP-E, an energy environmental version of the GTAP model, is useful for surveying the energy-economy-environment-trade linkage in economic policy analysis, it does not have the decomposed model of the electricity sector and its analyses are comparatively static. In this study, a recursive dynamic CGE model with a detailed electricity technology bundle with nuclear power generation including FR was developed based on the GTAP-E to evaluate the long-term socioeconomic effects of FR deployment. The capital stock changes caused by international investments and some dynamic constraints of the FR deployment and operation (e.g., load following capability and plutonium mass balance) were incorporated in the analyses. The long-term socioeconomic effects resulting from the deployment of economic competitive FR with innovative technologies can be assessed; the cumulative effects of the FR deployment on GDP calculated using this model costed over 40 trillion yen in Japan and 400 trillion yen worldwide, which were several times more than the cost of the effects calculated using the conventional cost-benefit analysis tool, because of ripple effects and energy substitutions among others.