2010 年 9 巻 3 号 p. 252-270
Replacement of nuclear power plants has the possibility of affecting the management of electric power suppliers. Therefore, in the nuclear policy, a depreciation method as an equalization method, which means that part of the investment cost is accumulated as an allowance, and after the start of operation, the depreciation cost in the replacement project is equalized, has been introduced in Japan. In this paper, we evaluate the replacement of nuclear power plants by taking into account the uncertainty of operating costs and the depreciation cost in order to examine the effect of the depreciation method on the decision criteria of the replacement. We found that the equalization method is effective for inducing the acceleration of the replacement. Furthermore, we show the relationship between the uncertainty and the depreciation method. It turns out that as uncertainty increases, the difference in investment threshold between the equalization method and the existing depreciation method decreases, and that in option value increases.