将来の土地利用変化が洪水氾濫域に及ぼす影響の評価：ミャンマー・バゴー川流域におけるケーススタディ

抄録

Flood management is one of the most urgent problems in Southeast Asia. In this research, land use projection by GIS and statistical model, rainfall-runoff model and hydraulic model were integrated to analyze the impact of future urbanization and deforestation on flood vulnerability in a local scale. Based on land use scenarios, flood simulation was conducted. The results show that urbanization, deforestation and development of croplands will actually increase peak discharge during flood while reforestation will reduce it. Furthermore, the difference between the worst and best scenarios was estimated as 3.68km² in inundated area and approximately 0.5m in flood depth in the study area. This result shows maximum difference in uncertain future. This integrated scheme would support land development plan or policy from the viewpoint of disaster risk reduction.