抄録
This paper presents an integrated method of market data and simulation for demand forecasting of Eco-car. For acquiring market data by using conjoint analysis, we conduct a stated preference experiment, thereby predicting a potential share of Eco-car which is used in the Bass model in simulation. The Bass model simulates a diffusion process of new product of durables. In the simulation, a time series model of total demand for the product on the Bass model is introduced. In the experiments, we conduct a internet survey on 49 cities in Japan and obtain the part-worth utilities for the level of attributes of Eco-car. Then using by the Bass model under the scenario of regular gasoline prices, the time series prediction of Eco-car and Kei car is done in 2010 up to 2040, and is also used to assess the influence on CO2 emissions. The proposed method allows the researcher to examine the scenario analysis on the diffusion of new products.
