Long Short-Team Memory for Forecasting Degradation Recovery Process with Binary Maintenance Intervention Records

Abstract

We considered the problem of forecasting the degradation recovery process of civil structures for prognosis and health management. In this process, structural health degrades over time but recovers when a maintenance intervention is performed. Maintenance interventions are typically recorded in terms of date and type. Such records can be represented as binary time series. Using binary maintenance intervention records, we forecast the process by using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). In this study, we experimentally examined how to feed binary time series data into LSTM. To this end, we compared the concatenation and reinitialization methods. The former is used to concatenate maintenance intervention records and health data and feed them into LSTM. The latter is used to reinitialize the LSTM internal memory when maintenance intervention is performed. The experimental results with the synthetic data revealed that the concatenation method outperformed the reinitialization method.