A Method for Estimating the Order of Influenza Infection between Adults and Children

Abstract

  This paper puts forward a method for determining the infection order of influenza between adults and children from the daily variations in the amount of influenza anti-viral agents treated at a pharmacy. The time series of Tamiflu Capsule for adults and Tamiflu Dry Syrup for children are compared by means of the cross-correlation function. The results from pharmacies located in Tokyo and Kanagawa show that the influenza infection period of adults is earlier than that of children, indicating the infection order: first adults and second children. However, a pharmacy in Saitama yields no clear result.