断層面間の相互作用が働く系における地震発生の予測可能性
特集: 大地震の長期予測はどこまで可能か? III. 地震発生の物理と長期予測
1998 年 50 巻 appendix 号 p. 181-187
詳細
1998 年 50 巻 appendix 号 p. 181-187
We analyze the dynamics of two interactive parallel faults on the basis of a discrete dynamical model. This fault model can be regarded as an extension of the Burrige-Knopoff model. Our main concert is about the temporal variation of characteristic events on the two interactive faults. The tendency is observed that the characteristic events continue to occur only on one of the faults for a period of time; the occurence is quasiperiodic in this period as generally found for the Burridge-Knopoff model. However, the activity is suddenly transferred to the other fault at some time. The period of characteristic even occurrnece tends to alternate on the two faults. This length of this period is generally lager when the interaction are weak between the two faults. This suggests that the recurrence of large events on neighboring faults is highly complex. It is also indicate from our analysis that long apparently quasiperiodic recurrence of large events on a faults may cease at some time if weak fault interaction exist.
