This paper analyzes the reason of the explosive expansion of Chinese steel industry after 2001, with the focus on the period of two years before and after Lehman Shock.
In the first place, it analyzed long term changes of crude steel production, and import and export of steel products, and pointed out that export usually decreased when import increased, but in case the whole economy was confronted with drastic changes of phases, directions of changes of import and export amounts could coincide.
In the second place, it examined monthly changes of crude steel production level and trade level of steel products from January of 2008 to December of 2009, and made it clear that Chinese steel industry overcame the influence of Lehman Shock within few months and restore the velocity of the explosive expansion.
In the third place, it analyzed the long term price changes of iron ore, coking coal, pig iron and several steel products, and pointed out that a phenomenon, which the author called “a smaller
Great Leap Forward in Shanxi Province” occurred in the process of the transition from planned price system to market price system. And then, it examined the monthly changes of the prices of steel products of the same period, and pointed out the existence of the “rush-to-buy effect in price increasing phase” and “wait-and-see effect in price decreasing phase”.
Based on these analyses, it examined the correlation of monthly changes among the prices, the production levels and the trade levels, and pointed out that the price which determined the production level of a steel product was not the price of the same month but the price of some months earlier. The author defined this price as
“production-level-deciding price”, and pointed out the existence of “keep-to-buy effect” in the phase of crash of the price.
At the end, it analyzed the long term changes of GDP and apparent consumption of steel products after 1978, and pointed out the coefficient of apparent consumption of steel products was as low as 0.59 in the years of 1997 and 98, but it started to rise very sharply from the year of 2001, and it exceeded 1.00 in 2004 and still keeping going up. It meant China entered high-steel-consumption era from 2004, and steel consuming industries have been kept shifting from whole world to China.
In conclusion, it pointed out that, to which year Chinese steel industry could keep explosive expansion, it depends on the continuance of intensification of competitiveness of the steel consuming industries in China.
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