This study developed a microscopic simulation evacuation model considering car-following behavior in flood situation using software AIMSUN. We formulated the relationship between car-following free velocity and the depth of water by information with respect to the accurate representation of vehicle's dynamics properties under flood. Moreover, a flood prediction model combining traffic analysis is conducted to catch up with the momentarily changed network because of the disaster. We also compare the effectives of different departure models of human behavior. They are exponential and simultaneous activities. The results indicate that the flood significantly affects the evacuation and that strategies promoting smooth evacuation activity are very important.
Urbanization in the Philippines is one of the fastest in Southeast Asia, as the Philippine economy continues towards service and industrial orientation and away from rural agriculture. Already more than 60% of the population resides in cities, and it is expected to continue to grow relentlessly. Likewise, rapid urbanization led to uncontrolled developments contributing to the deterioration of urban environment; such as the increasing traffic congestion due to improper planning and inefficient traffic management. Similarly, local cities in the Philippines, and perhaps in Southeast Asia, do not have enough comprehension on transport planning theories, models and techniques. Pressure is therefore mounting for Philippine local cities to address urban service requirements including transportation, thus the capacity of local government units to deal with these issues is a critical element in the promotion of sustainable urban development. To examine the needs of cities in developing its capacity to deal with transport and traffic problems, a nationwide survey on 120 cities was done. This paper will present the results of the survey, with the aim of illustrating a comprehensive and clear picture of the needs of cities in the area of enhancing capacity building in transport planning and traffic management.
People on the streets create a unique culture just by occupying its space. A user-centered design considers first and foremost the needs and behavior of these individuals as they utilize the street space. The paper examines street user behavior in Edo and colonial Manila. The historical context of street use provides potential constructs and concepts that would lead to improving street space. The premise is that due to a similar monsoon-based climate and forest environment origins, even with a contrasting development of street urban form, there is still an underlying similarity with respect to the use of street space in both Edo and Manila. In-depth discussion centers on the sociology of street space as well as street user behavior examining in detail group attributes, individual attributes and user groupings to provide us proof of the presence of street culture brought about mainly by its users and the potential of reviving such culture to make it conducive for street use. Analysis will dwell on the significance of attributes, their level of similarity or dissimilarity as well as their frequency of occurrence and how the information may influence street space design.
This paper empirically identifies institutional spillover effects, i.e. the influence of one institution's actions, indirectly or unintentionally, on the actions of another institution, that resulted during the implementation of the Circumferential Road No. 3 construction project in Manila, Philippines which was funded by foreign aid. The paper shows an analysis of the mechanism of the effects, based on an examination of the behavioral process of the main actors - the donor, the recipient, the consulting company, and local organizations. First, the paper looked at the project purposes, processes, and outcomes based on relevant literature and interviews with local stakeholders. Then, focusing on a key event, institutional spillovers effects were identified. These spillover effects were examined through a process that identified the major actors, their motivations, available actions and strategies. Using a game-theoretic approach, the interactions that finally led to the amendment of policies for setting project bid-price were analyzed.
Even in today's internet era, newspapers are still thought of as indispensable information sources and to strongly influence citizens' awareness and understanding of transportation infrastructure. Accordingly, it would be beneficial for citizens to obtain information on various transportation issues easily through newspapers. However, the issue has been little investigated in Japan. Therefore, this study sought to ascertain the current state of trend news reported, to create a suggested format for newspaper companies to report transportation issues, and to develop recommendations regarding how the government uses the medium of newspapers to disseminate transportation news. News articles related to transportation in a national newspaper, a regional newspaper, and an American newspaper were extracted and compared with regard to the number of articles published on transportation issues. As a result, few such articles were found. Thus, potential measures for newspaper companies and the government to increase dissemination through newspaper articles are discussed.
This paper proposes a novel method to analyse decision-making during extreme events. The method is based on Decision-making Theory and aims at understanding how emergency managers make decisions during disasters. A data collection framework and an analysis method were conceptualized to capture participant's behaviour, perception and understanding throughout a game-board simulation exercise, which emulates an earthquake disaster scenario affecting transport systems. The method evaluates the participant's actions in order to identify decision-making patterns, strengths and weaknesses. A set of case studies has shown two typical patterns, namely: a) Support immediate rescue; b) Support lifelines recovery. Good decision-making practices regard to objective-oriented decision making, understanding of conflicting priorities and appropriate resource management. Weaknesses are associated with comprehending relationships between community/environment and projecting future scenarios. Overall, the case study's results demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of the proposed method to analyse decision making during disasters.
Travel time reliability has become an important factor in route choice analysis and is one of the key indicators for traffic performance measurement. Hence this study assessed the ten corridors of the Adelaide Metropolitan road network's travel time reliability by using the Buffer Time and Planning indices. The findings show that the Buffer Time indices for the selected corridors may significantly vary and for some corridors, they reach almost 100 per cent. Since the buffer time index seems to overestimate the travel time reliability measurement, a detailed assessment of the travel time distribution was also conducted. This analysis shows that none of the travel time distributions follow the normal distribution. However for some corridors the log normal distribution would fit the travel time distribution.
This study mainly focuses on modeling problems of post-disaster stockpiles demand from victims and formulates a bi-level mathematical programming model. The upper level presents stockpiles distributor's problem, and the objective is to maximize each requester's least satisfaction (the ratio of collected quantity to anticipated distribution quantity). Relatively, the lower level presents requester's problem, and the objective is to maximize requester's satisfaction. To verify the feasibility, this study also setup a scenario with 5 cases and numerical experiment solved by simplex method which can serve as a helpful reference for the distributor to dispatch post-disaster stockpiles.
This paper develops the optimal non-queuing toll and optimal step toll schemes to container ships in a queue for multiple berths at a busy port. Container ships' queuing times at the anchorage will be decreased to half of the total queuing time after pricing the optimal step toll scheme. Furthermore, container ships' arrival time change decisions from the non-toll to the optimal step toll cases can be predicted before tolling a busy port. The above outcomes are helpful if the pricing policy to a queue of container ships at the anchorage is considered by the port authorities.
Sustainable cities are those where journey-to-work trip lengths (and hence their ecological footprints) are stabilizing or decreasing. The control of residential and employment locations are two appropriate policy instruments. As the journey-to-work trip length depends both on urban structure and travel behavior, a mathematical model based on the optimal commuting assignment problem is proposed to test different policy scenarios. This model is based on behavioral zonal travel preference functions. The preference functions are transformed into quadratic functions using data for the journey to work in the major four cities of Hokkaido, Japan. The optimization model is applied to estimate mean trip lengths from different hypothetical zonal distributions of residences and employment.
This paper takes advantage of a GA based Bi-Level Programming Problem to find the optimal scheme of second-best road pricing problem, the method optimizes locations and toll levels simultaneously. The highlight of this paper is that the case study was taken on the actual network of Nagoya Metropolitan Area instead of a numeral network, in order to evaluate the effect of the method, we made comparison between a cordon pricing scheme and the same number of links tolled optimal locations and toll levels schemes. The result showed that under the situation of the same number of links, the optimal locations and toll levels scheme works better than the cordon pricing one.
This paper introduces a system-wide spatial impact analysis of two modes of financing of land transport infrastructure in the Philippines with opposite reallocative effects — (1) foreign transfers as in official development assistance funds and (2) value-added tax on transport services. These two financing modes are alternatively used to finance an equal amount of land transport infrastructure improvement across five different Philippine regions. The effect of each financing scheme will be analyzed per regional transport mode, per regional production sector; and per regional household income group. A spatial computable general equilibrium model is used to estimate the values of production and welfare after an exogenous financing shock is introduced. Results show that value-added tax has slightly greater impact on regional output and regional welfare than foreign transfers.
Charging for the use of toll roads consequently prices-out potential users whose willingness-to-pay is exceeded by toll fees that are charged. Therefore, economic gains such as travel time and vehicle operating cost savings will not be realized for those who have been priced-out. This reduction in the number of users may weaken the project's economic feasibility and financial viability. This presents a challenge to implementing projects though Public-Private-Partnership arrangements. A decision framework integrating objectives of the public sector and private proponent was proposed and applied to a prospective bypass road project. The analysis showed that the project was not viable for PPP within the current limits to public contribution to PPP projects. However, this test application demonstrated that it is possible, using a joint analysis of economic viability of the project and financial viability for the private partner, to show the feasible range of arrangements suitable within Philippine conditions.
Private Participation in Infrastructure is a concept which involves the public and the private sectors working in cooperation and partnership to provide infrastructure and public services. The purpose of this study is to propose the Revenue-Beta Model of obtaining a financial discount rate for PPI projects, especially road-related projects implemented by a BTO scheme with the following assumption: The Korean government can be considered as a risk-averse investor that can build a portfolio with each toll plaza on the Korean expressways. The most significant issue in this research is whether it is reasonable and practical to apply the Capital Asset Pricing Model to get an appropriate financial discount rate for PPI projects. As an example, the model is applied to a real BTO project: the CN Expressway project.
Consider a region of an arbitrary shape with multiple Central Business Districts (CBDs) competing for multi-class users that are distributed continuously over the region. Within this region, the road network is represented as a continuum and users patronize in a two-dimensional continuum transportation system to travel to their chosen CBD. A logit-type distribution function is specified to model the probabilistic destination choices made by the different classes of users. In this paper, a cordon-based congestion-pricing model for this continuum network is developed and the optimal location and toll level of the charging cordon is selected based on the equity, acceptability and social benefit of the charging schemes. The cordon-based congestion-pricing model is solved by using the finite element method and a promising Newtonian-based solution algorithm. A numerical example is given to show the usefulness of the proposed model, algorithm and criteria for cordon design and selection.
This paper attempts to test empirically whether a five percent additional capital infusion to land transport services sector in the National Capital Region reinforces center-periphery spatial configuration in a developing economy like the Philippines. The study captures the impact of such capacity build-up in terms of changes in interregional flows, regional welfare and output. The financing of such transport capacity enhancement is through an equivalent amount of government expenditure which is funded by foreign transfer payments like official development assistance funds. A transport-oriented spatial general equilibrium model is presented based on a five region social accounting matrix. Results indicate that while absolute gains in welfare and output still go to National Capital Region, the enhanced interregional flow of goods and services creates significant spillover effects in periphery regions which are located in Southern Philippines namely, Visayas and Mindanao.
Korea have gone into aging society in 2001 with over 7% of the proportion of the elderly, and it is estimated that Korea is going into aged society in 2018, most rapidly in the world, with over 14% of the proportion of the elderly, and also going into hyper-aged society in 2026 with over 20% of the proportion of the elderly. As Korea is going into aged society in near future, importance of the elderly friendly automobile is getting more, since automobile would be the most adequate transit mode for the elderly for various reasons. A main purpose of this study is to estimate of market scale for the elderly friendly automobile. In this study, aged drivers by each scenario are estimated and market demand of elderly friendly automobile is estimated considering statistic characteristic of the elderly (proportion of driving and type of automobile).
Ratio analysis is a commonly used analytical tool for verifying the performance of a firm. Easy computed ratios explain their wide appeal although interpretation is problematic, especially when two or more ratios provide conflicting signals. This paper built a method to measure inefficient companies in shipping industry through identifying the waste and causes. However, shipping industry needs much resource and cost-down to maintain operation efficiency. Activity-Based Costing (ABC) is an information system developed in the 1980s to overcome some limitations in traditional cost accounting and enhance its usefulness to operation management. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a handful method for evaluating DMU's activities. An overall operation management without ABC cannot reveal specific activity areas. Therefore, this paper combines and integrates two separated but widely used models for measuring costs and efficiency performance. The results show that a better operation management of the shipping industry, including product planning and design, quality management and control, process design and improvement, and work force management, could achieve cost reduction and improve efficiency while integrated DEA, financial statement analysis and ABC analysis.
The Public Service Obligation (PSO), Infrastructure Maintenance and Operation (IMO), and Track Access Charge (TAC) schemes marked a new beginning towards national railway industry which given its autonomy to offer commercial service, better quality of service provision, and competitiveness, in balance with the accountability to the government. The schemes were also proposed as initial step to clarify the separation of railway infrastructure and transport services management. Within five years implementation, there were some problems related to the lack of optimization on railway performance. It is necessary to reformulate the strategies to avoid further dispute and to support the smooth-running of the national railway reform. The simplest thing that the government should do is to refer back to the genuine concept of PSO, IMO, and TAC schemes as the unity of independent entities.
Coordination in the implementation of complementary demand-driven infrastructure projects is projected to increase the efficiency and benefit of the undertaking. The task of the social coordinator, assumed to be the government in this paper, is to ensure that such coordination take place to increase joint benefit. On the other hand, from the optimal timing perspective, project proponents have four possible choices depending on the implementation schedule of the complementary project: Implement now, implement subsequent to complementary project (Subsequent Implementer), implement prior to complementary project (Prior Implementer), or Synchronize Implementation. The reaction functions of Project A in maximizing its net present value, given the timing of Project B, are simulated. Possible equilibrium conditions are derived using the concept of Nash Equilibrium for non-cooperative games. Framework for the viability of the possible strategies for coordination is evaluated using the concept of side payment.
Economic analysis between the increment of accuracy and the number of small sample size was conducted to the spatial transferability in Ho Chi Minh City. Transfer index generated from the association of small sized samples with naïve method, updating alternative specific constants, Bayesian updating, updating alternative specific constants and scale parameter, and combined transfer estimator were used to represent the accuracy in the analysis. Graphical observation based on marginal transfer index and increment of marginal transfer index was used to produce the optimum range. In general, the economic range produced by the first three methods is between 150 and 360 observations. However, there is no optimum range need to be constructed from the last two methods as the transfer index is relatively established. A sample of 100 observations is recommended as the cost-effective sample size for these two methods. These monetary findings are not in line with the result from previous study.
Unlike the urban highway network, the inter-city network is composed of heterogeneous links of various speeds, costs and frequencies. Improvement of one airway link can possibly provide a new attractive travel route, such as an air connection route, as well as multi-modal route, including middle distance railway access. The improvement effect of a critical link may be propagated over the nation-wide network, unlimited to the direct neighbor connector of the improved link. How such propagation occurred in Japan between 1995 and 2005 is investigated. K-th shortest path search algorithm is applied to find the available set of routes. Remarkable changes in the Tohoku-Western Japan pairs are detected. This paper further analyzes the effects of the Shinkansen expansion to Hachinohe in 2002 on the service level of the available routes for those OD pairs, proving that there are strong multi-modal propagations on the air links at Sendai airport.
The reduction of snow removal expenditures is a pressing need for governments in Japan. Reducing snow removal expenditures at the national government level requires the following: 1) analysis of the cost structure, 2) development of a method for comparing costs among regions, and 3) development of cost reduction standards. We studied methods for objectively determining the cost effectiveness of snow removal, toward inter-regional comparison that has been regarded as difficult. To this end, we developed a model uses a linear regression line of "unit cost of snow removal" (UCSR) that is based on the relationship between snow removal costs and cumulative snowfall. This study presents how the model has been developed and discusses its applicability by using actual snow removal records. We also examine applicability of the model when the data from which the model is derived include those for an extremely snowy year and an unusually less snowy year.
Market “shocks” are especially problematic for demand forecasting. Conventional approaches assume that the future will be like the past and that the market will continue to develop and evolve in a smooth and continuous way. But this approach breaks down if the market is hit by an external “shock”. This paper explores the process of forecasting the short and longer term impact of a negative market shock on demand for travel. The suggested method is a bottom-up approach based on market segmentation and a simple response-recovery model that represents the profile of the response over time using a small number of parameters, each with a clear practical interpretation. The paper uses the Fiji and Tonga air travel markets as case studies, but the approach is transferable and could equally be applied to a range of other markets, transport modes and types of market shocks.
This paper proposed an integrated algorithm, which combined cell transmission model (CTM) with extended Kalman filtering (EKF) to respectively and iteratively estimate the arrival distributions and O-D proportions. A freeway corridor was used to investigate the capability of CTM in replicating traffic dispersion phenomenon. Results showed that CTM can accurately capture the traffic dispersion under various traffic conditions and that the degree of traffic dispersion gets larger as traffic flow increases. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed algorithm, a case study of Taiwan's freeway was conducted. Results showed that the proposed algorithm can accurately estimate the O-D proportions with rather low RMSE.
The delay function is a central component of equilibrium trip assignment models that influences the traffic volume on a road section. The Volume Delay Function (VDF) developed by US Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) in 1964 is commonly used to iterate traffic volume in Indonesia despite the fact that the Indonesian Highway Capacity Manual (MKJI) also has a curve of the VDF describing delay in Indonesia. This paper attempts to obtain the delay equation and its parameters refer to the curve of MKJI VDF. This is followed by an implementation using field data is carried out to compare traffic volume produced using the BPR VDF and the MKJI VDF. The results show that the application of the MKJI VDF can obtain a more accurate representation of the actual traffic volume compared to the BPR VDF.
The role of socialization has begun to attract attention in transportation planning. In this study, we investigated the effects of socialization on travel in the context of a developing country. We focused on university students' activity-travel behavior as influenced by the level and form of their socializing practices. We hypothesized that socialization would greatly affect the number of side-trips students took while returning home after class. Data were collected at pre-selected universities in Metro Manila. Path analysis results suggested that certain types of socialization had significant effects on the frequency of participants' side-trip as they were returning home. Furthermore, social network size had a significant effect on patterns of after-class activity travel. Overall, the results suggest that socialization provides sound motivation for trip generation and should be considered in transportation planning processes in developing countries.
Research on Transport Demand Management (TDM) has been conducted many times, such as the application of TDM strategy and the selection of TDM strategy which includes the selection of TDM strategy suitable for Indonesian cities. However, the research and discussion on the willingness of the road users and Indonesian urban population to change their habits and accept the impact of the application of the TDM strategy, has not been conducted. This paper aimed to understanding public acceptance by assessing the characteristics of road users/public and their willingness in determining the suitable TDM strategy for Indonesian cities. The method used in this research is the analysis on the data from primary survey in order to understand the characteristics of road users and the preference of road users and public. The result of the research shows that most road users are willing to implement the TDM strategy that was offered. The level of acceptance will be high if the TDM strategy takes into account the socio economic characteristic of the road users that will implement the strategy, takes into account the trip pattern of the road users that will implement the strategy and pays attention to the level of transportation service which can compete with the level of private vehicle service.
This paper describes an empirical derivation of an activity participation choice model at the household level decisions taking into account the allocated activities and joint activity participation of household heads in discretionary activities. The households that we consider here are two-heads households; each is either a worker or non-worker. Attributes of households, such as, for example the presence of young children, attributes of the work activities and space-time settings are considered as explanatory variables. To deal with this large set of attributes and account for non-linear relationships between the variables, a decision tree induction method — CHAID — is used to derive a decision tree model. We show how the decision tree model can be used as a component in an activity-scheduling model, ALBATROSS, to predict travel demand in an activity-based-micro-simulation system. The model shows a satisfactory performance as indicated by its goodness-of-fit on validation data.
Travel demand forecasting is generally performed using a zoning and network system. These two elements are closely connected with each other, and the aggregation levels of them should be determined appropriately depending on the purpose and subject of research. The purposes of this paper are to analyze interactions of aggregated zoning and network systems and to propose a method minimizing spatial aggregation errors stemming from aggregated zoning and network systems. Statistical reliability tests are performed to assess the fitness of the proposed aggregation levels. The results show that the two proposed aggregation levels can make traffic assignment results within a reasonable error range and also reduce required time and costs significantly. The results of this study are expected to contribute to a methodology for proposal and preliminary feasibility studies and then to provide an objective and rational basis for the project promotions.
Japan has more than 6,000 small islands. However, almost all the islands do not have the resources for developing an industry. So, tourism business is important for most of these islands to generate revenues. At present, the decreasing number of tourist is causing problems to the tourism business of the island which is often used for recreation. It is necessary to formulate the measures for tourism promotion.. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to review existing strategies. Survey was conducted to propose the strategies for tourism promotion using Sado Island as a case study. In order to objectively propose strategies, analysis of tourist activities and preference was done using the tourist survey data. In this paper, we tried to analyze the transportation mode choice behavior by discrete choice model and visitor's preference by factor analysis and discriminant analysis. Based on the analytical results, several ideas for transportation improvement and boosting strategies of recreational spots were pointed out..
This study aims to suggest reasonable method of analyzing automobile users' empirical cognition on travel mode choice. This study defines the concept of Automobile User-Value (AUV) as, the ratio of transportation service that automobile users acquire to cost that they pay. The analysis frame is developed by considering Customer Value and Service Quality (SERVQUAL) method. AUV is divided into expected value and perceived value, and evaluated by SERVQUAL method. The analysis indicates that the AUV score is 4.6 times higher in automobile than transit. Path analysis shows that the effectiveness of automobile's motive to transit's motive was low. Various policy alternatives for modal shift have been made to relieve transportation problems. But the auto's mode share has increased mainly due to ignorance in policies about automobile user value. In order to improve transportation systems in metropolitan areas, it is strongly recommended that AUV should be surveyed and analyzed in more detail.
Synthetic baseline population data is one of the most important data required for the activity based travel demand model. The conventional approach to create this baseline population mainly relies on the Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) procedure. However, the traditional IPF procedure assumes the known input data from both the observed cell counts and their marginal counts. This paper presents the application of least square procedure for estimating baseline population distribution in the area where only partial marginal distribution data are available. The method concentrates on optimizing the least squares of the errors between the estimated conditional probability and the target conditional probability, given the constraints of underlying population information in the study area (such as total population, total population by gender, and total population by age etc.). Numerical examples and the case study of Phitsanulok city in Thailand are also presented.
Inferring trip origin-destination (O-D) matrix in a vehicular network using partial link flow information is a critical issue for transportation planning and traffic management. However, due to a budgetary constraint, the minimum subset of links to be equipped with vehicle detectors (VDs) and their installation locations need to be determined to provide a desirable O-D matrix estimate. In the present research, a linear algebra-based method was developed to deal with the network location problem. Given a network structure represented by its link-path incidence matrix, some crucial links were strategically identified by a basis link model (Hu et al., 2009a, b) and the collected link flow information were further incorporated into an O-D matrix estimation model based on link flow conservation rule without any unreasonable assumptions, such as known prior O-D information and/or users' route choice probability. Numerical results based on a simplified real highway network indicated that the O-D matrix estimates given by the basis link model combining with the proposed O-D estimation model are generally satisfactory.
The purpose of this study is to explore relationships between actual amount of information and communications technology (ICT) use and travel by developing trip generation models. The data for this study come from an ICT use and activity diary survey of 269 households of Seoul Metropolitan Area in 2006. We first conducted pair-wise correlation tests between ICT (Internet, mobile phone, and land-line phone) use and travel (number of trips). The test results show that ICT use and travel are positively correlated. We also developed regression models of number of trips considering socio-demographic variables as well as ICT use variables. It turned out that ICT use variables have statistically significant positive effects on travel. Furthermore, assuming that interrelations between ICT and travel exist, structural equation models were developed taking them as endogenous variables. The model results strongly suggest that ICT use positively affects travel (indicating complementary effects).
Bus service supply has diminished and finally abolished in an underpopulated region where public transport demand is in an extremely low density. Its mobility is very low as well as restrictive for elderly people and disadvantaged people who have no private means. The paper analyzes travel behavior by car passengers and community buses in a mountainous underpopulated region, Yamakoshi in the city of Nagaoka, Niigata in Japan and estimates travel mode choice models using travel diary data to reveal the constraint factors of mobility for elderly people. Finally, the paper clarifies an important factor of ‘walking distance from home to a bus stop’ to shift travel mode from car passengers into an exclusive club bus system for elderly people.
There are land uses that are substantial trip attractors during the morning commuting peak hour. However universities are unique in the existence of several additional traffic peaks during a day. A model for students' moped flow based on parking congestion cost and arrival (departure) time is proposed and validated. The model is theoretically formulated considering the equilibrium conditions and numerically validated using a bidirectional, real dataset collected and classified on the road connecting the Kawauchi and Aobayama Campuses of Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan. This model captures the effect of congestion such as the presented on the parking lots; and also, the effect of the queue in terms of psychological discomfort.
The formulations of the user-optimal dynamic traffic assignment (UODTA)-based network design problem (NDP), signal setting design problem (SSD), and the integrated NDP and SSD problem (NDP-SSD) for the deterministic (DET), stochastic (SP) and robust (RO) optimizations are reviewed. The modifications of the simulated annealing (SA), genetic algorithm (GA) and reactive tabu search (RTS) for the nine problems (DET/SP/RO of NDP/SSD/NDP-SSD) are discussed. In the experiment, SA, GA and RTS are compared for the nine problems to identify best algorithms. The best algorithm for each problem is employed to find a best solution, which is then evaluated under stochastic condition. We find that the RO solutions yield the best robustness and lowest risk, whereas the DET solutions perform worst. The integrated robust approach is the most desirable, and the next best approach is the sequential robust approach. The deterministic approach can yield worse solutions than the do-nothing case.
The Tsukuba Express line commenced operations in August 2005, connecting Tsukuba city and Tokyo metropolitan, Japan. Based on the Tsukuba Express Railway Project, the transportation system includes road network and local bus network which had greatly restructured Tsukuba City and its surrounding area. The objective of this paper is to understand the impact of Tsukuba Express Railway Project on the actual travel pattern and behavior of the residents of the surrounding areas of Tsukuba Express. The study conducted panel data survey before and after Tsukuba Express' operation. Results indicated that residents' patterns and modal choices have changed significantly.
This paper proposes a method for sequential updating of the short-run and long-run price elasticities of traffic demand incorporating regional differences based on hierarchical Bayesian approach. The elasticities are treated as uncertain elements and updated to make an adjustment of our expectations/beliefs in the behavioral responses. As an empirical analysis, the updating is demonstrated from January through August in 2008 by using monthly traffic volume data on 54 expressway routes in Japan, which include two notable periods: the outdated temporary tariff rate (during April 2008) and the rapid increase of gasoline price (until August 2008). The results show that, even within a year, the short-run and long-run elasticities are quite unstable across space and over time, and underscore that we should make a continued observation of both short-run and long-run elasticities in order to monitor the change of behavioral responses to gasoline price fluctuations.
Travel behavior changes over time and such changes might be not the same across individuals, either. In the context of stated choices, such behavioral dynamics might become more complicated. This paper proposes a new DGEV (Dynamic Generalized Extreme Value) model with heterogeneity for not only SP data, but also the combined SP/RP data to further improve the predictability of the stated preference (SP) data. The DGEV model is used to simultaneously capture initial conditions, state dependence, and future expectation as well as time-varying tastes. Heterogeneity is measured with respect to the observed individual tastes to levels of travel services. An empirical analysis is conducted using a 4-wave panel data of travel mode choice collected in Hiroshima City in 1987, 1990, 1993 and 1994, where a new transit system was targeted. It is confirmed that the proposed models are effective to capture heterogeneous dynamic in travel mode choice behavior.
The sources of errors in travel demand model output are not only from a lack of information related to the parameters that the model tries to estimate but also due to the absence of sharply defined criteria of class membership that can play important roles in human thinking, for which qualitative variables may be better representations. Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) is suggested as an approach to tackle the computation of such variables. Combined with other approaches, in this case Artificial Neural Network (NN) and Doubly Constrained Gravity (DCG), the FST is used to model intra city work trip distribution with trip length addressed as a fuzzy attribute. However, the fuzzy model tends to perform with the same level of accuracy as un-combined models. In some cases, the hybrid models have a slightly lower performance than NN and DCG. Findings from this study suggest that FST may be suitable for inter city trip, but not short trip distribution model.
Influence area means the spatial range that the change of traffic flow pattern is remarkable after the construction of highway facilities. The influence area would be a significant criterion for economic analysis because it has an effect on the benefit estimation. However existing methods for establishing influence area (such as the O/D method, the method using variation of traffic volume and the method using variation rate of traffic volume) have no standard criteria. In this paper, problems which existing methods have are analyzed and a new method using select link analysis is proposed. Influence area could be established as the set of zones having 70 percentile cumulative trips out of OD pairs using selected link. In addition, the value of standard criteria for establishing influence area is suggested and it is validated via case study.
Transportation demand models estimate travel demands due to daily activities of persons. The gravity model is the representative approach of trip distribution drawn between the spatial interaction of trip making and travel costs. However, the standard gravity model shows the modeling limitation due to distance-based distribution in cases of polycentric city structure. Many transportation researchers insist that the gravity model should be improved by concerning new variables of areal characteristics or interzonal relative attractiveness. This research develops an estimation procedure for interzonal relative attractiveness as a new variable for explaining zonal spatial properties and interzonal spatial association using 1996 and 2002 interzonal commuting trips of the SM city. The research is extended to develop an improved trip distribution model containing the counterpropagation neural network with three hidden layers. The applicability of the improved model is evaluated by four criteria including β, E-norm, RMSE, and Theil value.
The activity duration in activity-based approach typically has been analyzed by various types of regression models, which manifest relationships between socio-economic variables for independent variables and activity duration for dependent variable. Among various approaches, the most frequently adopted model is the hazard-based model, which is a parametric approach because it assumes the probability distribution of the dependent variable prior to model estimation. Since the distribution is not usually aware of the assumption of distribution function prior to estimation is sometimes very strong restriction. Especially, when the true distribution has a unique pattern (for example, bimodality shape), we have difficulty in choosing the relevant probability distribution functions. This study aims to develop the activity duration models using kernel density estimator (hereafter ‘KDE’). KDE is a type of nonparametric estimation methods and can construct the probability distribution including some special features, which parametric methods hardly describe. In addition, relationships between travel time and activity duration are also investigated by the bi-variate KDE using travel diary survey data in Seoul, Korea.
The development of integrated transport supply and demand management (TS-DM) strategies is crucial for ensuring sustainable urban development. Any TS-DM strategy will not only affect the transport system performance, but also result in changes of the land use pattern. Moreover, implementing TS-DM strategies normally involves a progressively phased long-term schedule; one must take into account the total accruing costs and effects over time so as to optimize the system performance. This paper develops a mathematic optimization program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) to study the impact of TS-DM strategies on transport system performance and activity location costs expressed as land value. Specifically, a bid-rent mechanism via the random utility approach is developed to model residential location choices. Finally, a numerical example is provided to compare among different strategies. Through this study, we hope to introduce promising planning perspectives to create win-win scenarios for both users and transport system managers.
This paper examines the characteristics of the choice behavior of urban rail users in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area and proposes heuristic rules for generating an individual's choice set by eliminating the options by his/her aspects. Then, this paper empirically applies the proposed rules to the simultaneous choice analysis of the access travel mode, rail station of origin, and rail route using multinomial logit models. The results show that the choice set generation rule with two-step elimination according to the access distance to the rail station of origin and the total travel time, including access travel time and rail-ride travel time, exhibits the best fitness in the parameter estimation.
This paper attempts to propose departure time choice model of travelers for going to city centre based on disutility that derived from three processes of going to a place for an activity. The first is leaving home process: process from leaving home or origin to arrival at the place or destination in city centre. The second is staying at the activity place: process from arrival at the destination to the leaving the place to return home. The third is returning home: process from leaving destination to arrival at home. The model was applied to the people who went to a city centre for daily shopping. By a goodness of fit test, it was revealed the proposed model was acceptable. The model is to be applied to develop a mode choice model in further studies.
Existing studies have shown that decision of activity participation and time allocation behaviors are interdependent. This study reconfirms this finding using a Japanese national time use data collected in 2001 by developing a joint discrete-continuous time allocation model to represent the interactions between activity participation and time use behaviors over the course of a day. A binary logit model is adopted to describe activity participation behavior, while a utility-maximizing time allocation model is established to calculate the time allocated to each activity. The estimation results show that personal attributes, household attributes, and external environment attributes have a significant impact on activity decision. The negative parameter for the above interaction suggests that competition of time allocation occurs across activities. Furthermore, it is also confirmed that individuals try to allocate available time on different activities equally in order to increase his/her utility.
The recent literature indicates a growing adoption of Artificial Neural Network (NN) in travel demand modelling, and this study is one of them, focusing on passenger trip distribution, especially work trips. Various models of NN were developed with the variables of learning rates (LR), hidden layer node numbers (HLNN), and percentages of dataset for training, validation and testing. Comparisons with the Doubly Constrained Gravity model (DCGM) were used to measure the performance of NN models. The results suggested that the validated NN model with learning rate 0.1 can almost reach the same performance of DGCM model. Further, the statistical test results shows that the NN models are unable to reach the same performance as DGCM although the NN model was trained, validated and tested using the same data.
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