Nitrate-nitrogen contamination of groundwater in Shimabara Peninsula continues to be a serious problem. In 2006, Nagasaki Prefecture established the Shimabara Peninsula Nitrogen Load Reduction Plan, and measures have been taken. In this study, we conducted a factor decomposition analysis of the nitrogen load potential using the open data attached to the plan and the data published by the local government and examined what factors have been changing the potential. The changes in nitrogen supply from agriculture, livestock industry, and household life were decomposed into (1) nitrogen intensity factors, (2) structural change factors, and (3) scale factors, and the effects of each factor were quantitatively investigated. Consequently, it was found that the total of the three sectors during FY2013-2019 showed a slight improvement trend, and this was due to the structural change factor in the livestock industry and the cropped area factor in agriculture. Thus, the slight decrease in nitrogen supply during this period is mainly due to the conversion to smaller nitrogen-supplying animals in the livestock industry and the decrease in cropped area in agriculture.
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