パキスタンの水資源確保のためにインダス川に建設が計画されているのがカーラーバーグ・ダムである。小論の目的は同ダムが1960年代に着工が予定されていたにもかかわらず，いまだ計画段階のままとどまっている背景を明らかにすることにある。小論では同ダム建設計画の展開と建設反対派の動向を概観した後，現計画を形作った2000年代のムシャッラフ政権の取り組みと建設反対派への対応，政党の同計画への姿勢，計画をめぐるパキスタン国内の言説も検討した。そのなかで，計画停滞の背景にスィンド・パンジャーブ両州間の水配分争いを中心とした連邦・州，州間の不信感と相互の信頼醸成努力の欠如があり，これらの克服は容易でない点を指摘した。また，政治への介入を繰り返してきたパキスタン軍は水利計画にも利害関係を有しているために同ダム計画を後押ししてきたが，近年同ダム以外の水利計画の選択肢が増えたために優先順位が下がったことも背景として指摘した。

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This article discusses how Pakistani society has clearly distanced itself from terrorism. On 6^th January 2015, the 21^st Amendment Bill passed by the National Assembly of Pakistan has officially changed the constitutional definition of “Muslim terrorist(s)” into “terrorist(s) using the name of religion”. Pakistan has been called a hub of terrorists ever since several active terrorist groups are known to be based in Pakistan – such as the Sunni extremists Tahrik-e Taliban Pakistan (Pakistan Taliban Movement, TTP) or Sipah-e Sahaba Pakistan (SSP). Some of these groups are said to be supported by the Pakistani military and claim they will establish an Islamic order in society. However, Pakistani society itself has been suffering from terror and has been mobilized in the war on terror. This paper shows the transformation of Pakistani society concerning the concept of “Islamic-ness”.

Pakistan has been a frontline state in conflicts such as, the anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan in the 1980s, or the war on terror after 9/11. During the anti-Soviet war, Pakistan received huge financial and military assistance from both Western and Islamic countries. The Western countries supported Pakistan in the Cold War proxy war against the USSR, and Islamic countries provided assistance in the name of jihad against the Communists. In the 1980s, Muhammad Zia ul-Haq’s military regime promoted Islamization of society, a process which was never criticized by the international community which needed the Pakistani military regime’s cooperation in the war.

Needless to say, Islam is the national religion of Pakistan and 95% of the total population of Pakistan belongs to Islam. Although the peoples of Pakistan may have different religious practices in their everyday life, all of them are attached to a firmly based monotheistic faith, and regard Muhammad as the last Prophet. However, there has generally been widespread reluctance to criticize Islamization or even Islamic extremists who kill in the name of religion. Also, terrorists often expressed their disapproval of the Pakistani government as not being “Islamic” or being a “puppet of the US”. As a result, Pakistani society has often been confused concerning the “Islamic-ness” of its own governments. This may be one of the reasons why there was not much criticism of the extremists even if they killed in the name of Allah.

Since the tragic attack on a Peshawar school in December 2014, Pakistani society has evolved radically on that issue. Even Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who originally supported the idea of negotiating with the terrorists, has now approved an amendment to the Constitution establishing special military courts which are to be active for a two-year period only and designed to be rapidly dealing with crimes related to terrorism. The amendment states that Pakistan is willing to permanently wipe out and eradicate terrorism from the country. This decision shows not only the firm intention of the government on its war on terror, but also the decisive break with the terrorists who monopolize the cause of religion in Pakistani society. For Pakistan, it could be said that the consequence of voting such an amendment represents the greatest social transformation ever experimented since the Islamization of the 1980s.

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This study aims to explain the cycle of conflict escalation and tension reduction between India and Pakistan during the post-Cold War period. India and Pakistan have reiterated military conflict and diplomatic dialogue since their independence. They have fought three wars against each other and now have the highest risk of nuclear war worldwide. In the post-Cold War period, India and Pakistan have often threatened nuclear war, with incidents including the India-Pakistan nuclear armament in May 1998, the Kargil conflict from May to July 1999, and a military standoff from December 2001 to May 2002. Conflict escalation between the two countries has been explained from two standpoints. First, studies focusing on the structural factors of international politics have explained that the end of the Cold War fostered conflicts between India and Pakistan. Second, studies focusing on the internal political factors affecting India and Pakistan showed that the instability of Pakistan’s democratic institutions and the rise of extreme religious ideologies in both countries facilitated the conflicts. However, such factors are insufficient to explain the cycle of conflict escalation and tension reduction between India and Pakistan during the post-Cold War period.

First, this paper discusses how the ideology of the Indian regime affects the India-Pakistan relationship. Second, the degree of stability of the ruling coalition in the Indian parliament influences the cycle of conflict and tension reduction between India and Pakistan. Thus, this paper reveals the dynamics of conflict escalation and tension reduction between India and Pakistan.

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