With the ending of the Cold War, the U.S. has failed in coercing far weaker states – such as Serbia,Afghanistan and Iraq – to comply with its demands, despite its overwhelming military superiority. Conventional wisdom holds that a stronger state’s superiority ensures the credibility of its threat, and that the weaker state will accept the demands because the ex-ante uncertainty of any conflict’s outcome (namely,the target’s defeat) almost does not exist. In reality, however, weaker states frequently resist stronger states’ threats, sometimes fighting hopeless wars instead of complying with their demands peacefully. This paper explores this puzzle of asymmetric compellence failure and asymmetric war.

Commonly, asymmetric compellence failures are explained by focusing on other states’ interventions or the domestic factors which reduce or extinguish asymmetry. Alternatively, they are regarded as reassurance failures, in which commitments to future self-restraint are deemed incredible. The weaker state resists the threat to defend its reputation for resolve. In contrast, this paper argues that power asymmetry undermines the credibility of the threat itself.

Why do such counter-intuitive phenomena occur? This paper argues that an asymmetry in relative capability necessarily implies an asymmetry in mutual threat perception. When power is symmetrical,each state’s power represents a serious threat to the other. If conflict occurs, the threat is automatically prioritized by both states. Therefore, in securing their existence (and as the vital interests of both are at stake), they will symmetrically display the maximum levels of resolve and willingness. In the instance of power asymmetry, however, the stronger state’s existence is unquestioned, with lesser conflicts not receiving priority. Contrastingly, the weaker state’s resolve will be stronger, as its existence is at stake. This asymmetry undermines the stronger state’s compellent threat, constructing it as incredible, precisely because the coercer’s resolve is in doubt.

In instances of power symmetry, it is not a balance of resolve but capabilities that affects the conflict’s outcome – the balance of resolve remains symmetrical. Ex-ante uncertainty is chiefly concerned with the competitor’s relative capability, not resolve. However, in instances of power asymmetry, the balance of resolve is uncertain. Ex-ante uncertainty is here principally concerned with relative resolve – capability is materially objective, while resolve is psycho-subjective, and thus less measurable. This variability/flexibility and invisibility leads to mutual misperceptions, which contribute to the failure of negotiations in cases of power asymmetry.

For example, while a stronger state’s increase in resolve – which originates from changes in its perception of the threat presented by a weaker target – may be clear to itself, this may remain unclear to the opponent. Consequently, the coercer may overestimate its own credibility (because it knows its true resolve) while the target underestimates its credibility (because it sees the coercer’s resolve as weak). These differences in credibility perception lead to asymmetric compellence failures. This logic is illustrated with reference to the 2003 Iraq War.

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本稿は、フィンランドにおける放射性廃棄物処分政策形成を巡る歴史的背景を、ドイツとの比較の視座から分析することを目的とする。Högselius（2009）の挙げる、世界の使用済み核燃料処分政策の相違に関する5つの説明要因のうち、特に軍事的野心と核不拡散、政治的文化と市民社会、エネルギー政策を扱う。両国とも核兵器を所有しないが、ドイツにおいては冷戦を背景に一時核武装論へと傾斜、核不拡散条約を巡り公に国内で対立、核武装疑惑につながりうる再処理を1989 年まで追求した一方、フィンランドにおいては北欧非核兵器地帯（NWFZ）協定構想が提案され、1980 年頃に再処理の選択が放棄された。さらにフィンランドでは東西両陣営からの原発を有しており、反原発運動が分断された。フィンランドが世界で初めて高レベル放射性廃棄物処分場計画を決定した理由の一つに、冷戦の文脈で、強い反原発運動が不在だったことが指摘されうる。

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明治から戦後までの日本における北欧文学の受容史を、セルマ・ラーゲルレーヴのそれを中心に概説する。 具体的な考察対象は、新劇運動における北欧演劇の受容、女性解放運動・児童教育運動に対するエレン・ケイの影響、無教会グループを中心とした、平和主義としての北欧受容、山室静による北欧文学およびラーゲルレーヴ受容である。この研究の日的は、邦訳作品の傾向・翻訳者の関心のあり方と日本史・日本文学史上の立場を関係付け、北欧のステレオタイプ・イメージの起源を明らかにすることである。

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The East European countries waged the Cold War as members of the Eastern block. But they also waged the Cold War against the Soviet Union. The Purpose of this paper is to analyze the beginning and end of this Cold War of East Europe from the viewpoint of the Soviet perception.
The Soviet rule over East Europe was the result of the Soviet threat perception, as well as the vacuume of power and Soviet capability to fill it up. In other words, the Soviets felt strong threat from the West and came to a conclusion that East Europe is a special and vital area for the Soviet national security through the experience over the Second World War. Then the end of this Cold War must be based upon the overcome of this perception by the new Russian leadership and the society. The paper will address to these processes.
As for the beginning of the Cold War of East Europe, we are going to pay attention to the period from August 1939 to June 1941, namely from the conclusion the Soviet-German Non-Agression Pact to the start of the Soviet-German War. This is because we think that these years got a decisive meaning for the formation of the Soviet security perception after WWII.
Then after fifty years, the time for change came with the Perestroika started by Gorbachev. The Soviet Union (then Russia) no longer has the capability to hold the East European nations as her protege nor alliance. Her threat perception is also being mitigated under the new post-Cold War situation in Europe. For all of this the paper will still give a suggestion for uncertainty over whether Russia has finally overcome her perception of vulneravility and of East Europe as her special zone.

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　This thesis deals with Yamamuro Shizuka’s reception of Nordic literature, especially that of Selma Lagerlöf. Yamamuro is the first Japanese author who received Nordic literature comprehensively and systematically. I analyze how Yamamuro received Nordic literature and why he did so, to analyze the prototype of Nordic image as a nostalgic idyll and Lagerlöf as a visionary pacifist.

　First, I will write about Yamamuro’s life and thoughts. He was a Marxist and renounced the left (known as “Tenkō” or “changing direction”). After the Second World War he founded the magazine Kindaibungaku (“modern literature”), in collaboration with five other authors who had also changed direction. Their purpose was to provide a national community, because they thought that the callowness of the modern ego had been the cause of militarism and fascism. Yamamuro and the other members often presented Nordic literature in Kindaibungaku.

　Next, I will analyze the relationship between Yamamuro’s ideas about modernism and his reception of Nordic literature. After his ideological change of direction, Yamamuro criticized American, Russian and German literature, which he had previously presented often as a Marxist, stating that the revolution was too superficial and temporary. At that time he empathized with classic literature from Japan and China. But Yamamuro was not engaged in the presentation of classic literature, because in his opinion, the classical authors had no reason, and therefore, no conflict. Therefore, Yamamuro embraced Nordic literature as the periphery of modernity for countries such as Japan, which did not show evidence of high modernity, in contrast to nations such as America, Russia and Germany, which were not stagnant as were the old Japan and China.

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　It is well known that Kunikida Doppo was greatly influenced by William Wordsworth and that the influence can be identified in his various works. One of his short stories “Koharu” (“The Indian Summer”), written in 1900, is among them. In my article, I discuss how Doppo’s “Koharu” closely imitates the structure of “Tintern Abbey” (1798), namely, the contrast of the past and the present; he also establishes a close parallel between the two works with regard to their thematic content – the meaning of which he intimately grasps. Therefore, Doppo once more immerses himself in the Wordsworthian world and revives himself, be it though for a brief time. In the story, Doppo accompanies himself with a young painter on his trip to Musashino in a way similar to that in which Wordsworth accompanied himself with his sister Dorothy on his second visit to the Wye as “an incarnation of his earlier self,” ⁽¹⁾ for both of them well knew “[t]he still, sad music of humanity.”⁽²⁾

　In addition to discussing the comparison of the theme and structure of these two works, this article focuses on another intimate relation found in “Koharu” – its creative use of Miyazaki Koshoshi’s Wordsworth (1893), the first Wordsworthian biography written in Japanese, which is mostly based on F. W. H. Myers’s Wordsworth (1885), one of the greatest biographies ever composed on the poet. “Koharu” contains several passages from Koshoshi’s biography which invite Doppo to remember his old days in the country and one of which is taken significantly from Wordsworth’s Guide to the Lakes. Since no scholar to date has paid attention to this fact, its significance will be emphatically discussed in this article.

　Notes: (1) Harold Bloom, The Visionary Company (Faber, 1961), p. 133.

　 (2) Jack Stillinger, ed., William Wordsworth: Selected Poems and Prefaces,Riverside edition (1965), p. 110.

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Protection of twentieth century architectural heritage is recent world wide concern. This paper concerns the cases in Finland, one of the leading countries in this matter, and especially the heritage of Alvar Aalto, the architect. First, this article introduces the interest for twentieth century heritage in Finland. Second, it researches for the conservation of Alvar Aalto's heritage in the Finnish architectural review “Arkkitehti”. So the paper covers also the activity of Alvar Aalto Foundation, the practical cases of restoration of Finlandia Hall, one of his masterpieces and also international project of restoration of Library of Viipuri, Russia.

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