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  • 犯罪行動に対するモデリングアプローチ
    小野 修一
    日本行動計量学会大会抄録集
    2020年 48 巻 SB1-1
    発行日: 2020/09/01
    公開日: 2021/06/24
    会議録・要旨集 フリー
  • 菅 美知子, 萩野谷 俊平, 細川 豊治, 蒲生 晋介, 石内 彩美
    犯罪心理学研究
    2016年 54 巻 1 号 41-51
    発行日: 2016/09/27
    公開日: 2017/03/22
    ジャーナル フリー

    本研究では,拠点推定モデルの精度について,犯行地点数を考慮した検討を行った。分析では,15地点以上の住宅侵入盗を行った55名分のデータを使用し,サークル仮説中心,空間平均,CMD(center of minimum distance: 最小距離中心)の各モデルについて,3地点から15地点までの各犯行地点数における誤差距離(犯人の推定居住地と実際の居住地の間の直線距離)を比較した。多重比較を行った結果,犯行地点数が7地点以上の場合に,CMDにおける誤差距離がサークル仮説中心よりも短かった。結果から,犯行地点数がモデルの推定精度に与える影響はモデルによって異なることが示唆された。

  • 加藤 久雄
    刑法雑誌
    1993年 33 巻 2 号 357-368
    発行日: 1993/05/20
    公開日: 2022/12/30
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 罪数と二重危険禁止条項の「関係」を中心に
    中野目 善則
    刑法雑誌
    1991年 31 巻 4 号 437-458
    発行日: 1991/05/25
    公開日: 2022/12/30
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 横田 賀英子, 渡邉 和美, 和智 妙子, 大塚 祐輔, 倉石 宏樹, 藤田 悟郎
    心理学研究
    2015年 86 巻 3 号 209-218
    発行日: 2015年
    公開日: 2015/08/25
    [早期公開] 公開日: 2015/05/28
    ジャーナル フリー
    The purpose of this study was twofold: first, to create an index for a behavioral linkage analysis of serial sex crimes, and second, to construct a predictive model for the analysis. Data on 720 sex crimes (rape, indecent assault) committed by 360 offenders arrested between 1993 and 2005 throughout Japan were collected. The following seven behaviors were examined during a series of analyses aimed at illustrating the effectiveness of crime linkage in serial sex crimes: victim age group, area type, publicness of offense site, weapon, time, contact method, and day of the week. The results indicated that six of the seven behaviors (excluding “day of the week”) significantly distinguished between linked and unlinked crime pairs. Under a logistic regression of these six variables, which were dichotomously coded in terms of the concordance or discordance between each pair of incidents, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.85 (95% CI = 0.82–0.87), indicating a high level of discriminative accuracy in identifying disparate sex crimes committed by the same person.
  • 横田 賀英子, 倉石 宏樹, 和智 妙子, 大塚 祐輔, 小野 修一, 渡邉 和美
    犯罪心理学研究
    2015年 53 巻 1 号 1-20
    発行日: 2015/08/05
    公開日: 2017/03/23
    ジャーナル フリー

    住宅対象窃盗は,発生件数が多い重大な犯罪であるにもかかわらず,住宅対象窃盗犯の犯人特徴と彼らの犯行スタイルの関係に焦点を当てた研究はわずかである。本研究の主目的は,住宅対象窃盗の再犯者と初犯者において,どのように犯人特徴と犯行特徴が異なるのかについて検討することである。データは,単独による住宅対象窃盗の検挙歴を有する196人の再犯者と244人の初犯者の計440人の住宅対象窃盗の単独犯より構成され,再犯者と初犯者で特徴を比較した。分析の結果,より低い学歴や無職といった社会的不適応に関連する変数が再犯者においてより多く認められた。次に,18の犯行特徴を,変数間の関係性を記述することを目的として数量化III類によって分析した結果,「犯罪性」と「犯罪痕跡」の2軸が見出され,犯罪性のオブジェクトスコアは,住宅対象窃盗の犯罪経歴の回数と有意な相関関係を有していた(Spearman's ρ=-.46, p<.001)。最後に,ロジスティック回帰分析によって,再犯者と初犯者を識別するためのモデルを検討した。ROC分析の結果,構築されたモデルは中程度の予測精度を有していることが示された (AUC=.80)。

  • 萩原 守
    史学雑誌
    1988年 97 巻 12 号 1939-1976,2073-
    発行日: 1988/12/20
    公開日: 2017/11/29
    ジャーナル フリー
    A great deal of research has been done on the legal system in Mongolia during the Ch'ing period. But most of it is concerned with interpreting the Mongol Code (meng gu li 蒙古例) enacted by the Ch'ing government and tries to understand the judicial system in Mongolia in that way. There is no research which utilizes any actual judicial precedents. So there has been no way to see, except by speculation, (1)which code was actually effective, (2)how judgment was actually achieved, or (3)how leagues (cirulran) and banners (qosiru) actually functioned as judicial organs. In this paper the author collects and analyzes materials on judicial precedents in order to determine the actual process of the judicial system. He uses a collection of official documents (dang an 〓案) written in Mongolian. It was transcribed into the Cyrillic alphabet, titled as The oppression of Mongolian females in the period of the Manju invaders, and published at Ulan-bator in 1958. He also uses some other official documents photoengraved and introduced by K.Sagaster. The second chapter of The oppression of Mongolian females contains three documents exchanged between banners and leagues concerning an attempted murder which occurred in the left-wing-right-end (zuo yi you mo 左翼右末) banner of the Han-uul league in the Halha region. Looking at them, we can see the actual process of judgment. The outline of this incident is as follows. Two brothers stole three horses from a tayiji, but the bannerhead (jasar) ignored the Mongol Code and judged them by himself without reporting to his superiors. A daughter of the younger brother was given illegally to the tayiji in return for the stolen three horses and became a slave of the banner-head afterwards. Six years later she attempted to murder the banner-head and his wife, after she was incited by a man who had a grudge against the banner-head. The banner court of law sat again. Because she disclosed the illegal action of the banner-head in the second court of the league, the incident involved the banner-head himself and was reported to the emperor Qianlong (乾隆) by way of the minister dealing with the affairs in Huree (ku lun ban shi da chen 庫倫辧事大臣) and the board of foreign affairs (li fan yuan 理藩院). Finally the banner-head was deposed because of his illegal procedure and failure to report to his superiors, while the daughter was exiled to Canton, and the principal offender of the theft, her uncle, was sent to Hunan or Fukien. From these incidents, we can point out many legal facts which have not yet been appreciated. The first significant fact is the positive proof that the Mongol Code was applied in Mongolia during the Ch'ing period. And the second is the major principle that the Penal Code (xing lu・xing li 刑律・刑例) of the Ch'ing Code (da qing lu li 大清律例) was to be applied if there were no appropriate regulations in the Mongol Code. We can also bring out some other valuable facts : (1)the requirement that serious criminal cases had to be reported from banners to leagues and then to the board of foreign affairs, (2)the actual conditions at each level in which courts sat and the decisions were made and (3)the process of transporting criminals and witnesses from banners to leagues and then to Huree.
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