In human services that provide human-interpersonal services, it is known that experience at the service encounter affects customer's survival and that customers have loyalties to a service provider rather than to a shop. For this reason, it appears that management would be seriously damaged if the service providers leave their jobs or transfer to another shop. Therefore, it is helpful for managers to estimate turnover risks and transfer effects at a human service company. In this paper, we propose a methodology for simulation analysis of the influence of service-provider turnover and transfer in the human services business. Our methodology provides a modeling framework to build an operational simulation model for analyzing the risk of staff turnover and transfer in the human-services business, from the viewpoint of organizational cybernetics and computational organization theory. Our methodology also identifies the tasks required in the modeling process and provides guidelines for model validation and scenario analysis. We applied the proposed methodology to simulation analysis of the turnover and transfer impact of service providers in a hair salon company with several shops.