Technology foresight has been practiced in various levels including enterprises, industrial organizations, scientific associations, local authorities, government agencies, states,
and
even on an international level. It varies in time scale from near to far future, as well as in participants, processes
and
techniques according to different purposes. Technology foresight in Japan has been applied to prioritizing R&D investments in Science
and
Technology Basic Plan. Foresight methodologies have evolved reflecting changes in social
and
economic circumstances of science
and
technology, including the recent global trend to emphasis on innovation which demands outcomeoriented science
and
technology policy. Each methodology has its own merits
and
demerits; the fittest for the purpose of a study must be chosen. Sometimes more than one methodology is combined in a complementary manner, as in the eighth Technology Foresight Survey, which comprised socio-economic needs analysis (vision of society in future
and
its needs by nonscientists), study on rapidly developing research areas (based on bibliometric analysis),
and
scenario analysis of major areas in science
and
technology by outstanding individuals, in addition to the standard Delphi survey. This was the first attempt of comprehensive foresight on a national level based on a combination of various methodologies. Science
and
technology foresight should evolve to cope with the everchanging environment as an important tool of policymaking.
抄録全体を表示