This paper aims to develop a forecastmodel to estimate the changing distributions of population and employees in a local city using cellular automata, and examine the capability of the model to simulate the future distributions under different land use policies. In order to provide a realistic simulation of the distributions, we introduce a stochastic transition rule and a critical parameter representing the relation of zoning and urban activity. Simulations using different sets of the parameter values are carried out and the likely impacts of the policies assumed in the model on the future distributions in the subject area, Toyohashi city, are explored.
